NASA Signals 22 Starship Launches Needed for Moon Landing

NASA has long treated the specific number of rocket launches required to send humans to the Moon as a closely guarded secret, akin to protecting nuclear codes. This opacity surrounds a critical metric for the Artemis Program: the quantity of Starship launches necessary to fill a lunar lander with enough propellant in low-Earth orbit to reach the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.

For years, the agency has avoided committing to a fixed figure, often responding that they were still refining the calculations. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who served as the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, expressed this hesitation to Ars Technica, noting, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.” She later indicated the number likely fell within the “high single digits to the low double digits,” implying roughly a dozen launches.

That earlier estimate suggested a complex logistical operation. It would have required SpaceX to launch a “depot” Starship into orbit, followed by 11 “tanker” Starships to load it with liquid oxygen and methane. While other officials had previously floated figures in the “high teens,” the general hope was that SpaceX would dramatically improve Starship’s lift capacity. Such improvements would reduce the number of tanker flights needed to fuel the lander for its lunar voyage.

However, a new internal estimate has emerged, suggesting the requirement is significantly higher than previously thought. On Thursday, the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly meeting. During the session, panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the risks associated with the Artemis Program and the specific challenges of landing humans on the Moon. His presentation highlighted the updated figures that have been circulating among agency leadership.

The new baseline of 22 launches represents a substantial increase from the earlier projections of a dozen or so. This shift reflects a more conservative calculation of the propellant needed to ensure the lander can successfully navigate the journey to the lunar surface and back. It underscores the sheer volume of fuel that must be accumulated in orbit before the crewed mission can begin, a process that is both technically demanding and time-consuming.

This updated number has sparked concern among some NASA officials. They worry that the dramatic improvement in Starship’s lift capacity, which was expected to lower the launch count, may not materialize quickly enough. If the rocket’s payload capacity remains closer to current projections, the 22-launch scenario becomes the likely reality rather than an outlier.

The stakes are high for the timeline of returning humans to the Moon. NASA aims to achieve this milestone within the current decade as part of its broader Artemis goals. If the number of required launches stays elevated, the schedule for accumulating the necessary fuel in low-Earth orbit becomes tighter. Each launch window is a critical step in a sequence that must be executed with precision to avoid delays in the crewed mission.

SpaceX faces the challenge of meeting this demand while continuing to refine its rocket technology. The agency and the company are working closely to determine if further efficiency gains can be made to reduce the launch count. Until then, the 22-launch estimate stands as the most recent official benchmark, shifting the focus from optimistic projections to a more grounded assessment of the logistical hurdles ahead.