Lebanese Shi'ite Poll Shows Shift in Support for State Control of Weapons
A September survey indicates a majority of respondents favor transferring Hezbollah's arsenal to the state, contrasting with earlier data from the same year.
By Wei Zhang ·
The traditional alliance between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Shi'ite community is facing its most significant internal challenge in years. New polling data suggests a growing preference for state authority over the militant group's independent military power, marking a departure from the long-standing consensus that the organization is the primary guarantor of the community's security.
The figures, released in mid-October and based on a September survey of 800 Shi'ites by Statistics Lebanon, show a clear majority favoring state control. Specifically, 66.4% of respondents supported handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state, while only 29.6% preferred Hezbollah retain them. This stands in contrast to Hezbollah's historical argument that its arsenal is vital for national defense against Israel.
Further details reported by Kataeb.org highlight a desire for centralized political authority. A striking 71.1% of participants stated that decisions regarding war and peace should be made exclusively by the Lebanese government. Conversely, just 5.9% believed Hezbollah leadership should hold a larger role in shaping the country's future direction.
Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces appears robust among the respondents. Approximately 78.5% expressed confidence in the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best suited to ensure long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role, challenging the group's claim to represent the security interests of its base.
Despite this shift, the sentiment remains mixed regarding the group's performance. While 67.4% felt Hezbollah had failed to fully meet its war objectives, 59.5% still expressed some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that the group's extensive support networks continue to sustain its strength, provided no other entity fills the resulting void.
The current findings diverge sharply from a May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, where 87.5% of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. Experts suggest that differences in question wording or political agendas may account for the gap, but they agree that weakening the group requires a stronger state military and financial backing to replace the services it provides.
Local dynamics reflect this tension. In Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted a Hezbollah-linked financial branch due to fears of Israeli strikes, while the group announced aid of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and $12,000 elsewhere. Following the March 2026 conflict and the 2024 killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the ultimate political shift may depend on the state's ability to offer security and economic opportunity.
Source: The Jerusalem Post
